Season: 41-33-1 ATS (55%)
Double Extra Lock: 6-2 ATS (75%)
With T. Rose locked down for the rest of the week, he kindly asked me to step back in this week. In fact, T. Rose welcomed in a new offensive lineman to his family on October 28th at 9 pounds 6 ounces. At 0-0, T. Rose Jr. already boasts a more lucrative gambling resume than his dad.
First word is ‘moneyline’: 3:1
Name of his first doll is ‘Phil Steele’: 4:1
First birthday party is at ‘Babes’ and not ‘Chuck E. Cheezes‘: 5:1
Over/under at what age he will first have to drive his dad home from the bar: 12
Over/under at what grade he first brings his dad’s winning gambling sheet in for show and tell: 2nd
STANFORD (-29) over Washington State – Next time you have a conversation with your buddies about the worst BCS team ever, you might want to mention the 2008 WSU Cougars. Washington State has ALLOWED 63 or more points in 4 of 5 conference games. In those 5 conference games, the Cougars have scored a TOTAL of 33 points. Stanford is back at home after a last second 1 point loss to UCLA and should be hungry for a rare blowout win here. Stanford is averaging 192 yards/game on the ground this year while WSU is allowing 6.7 yards/carry.
ARKANSAS (+7.5) over Tulsa – That’s correct – #18 ranked Tulsa comes into Fayetteville as over a touchdown favorite against the Razorbacks. Tulsa lays claim to the #1 total offense (602 yards/game) and the #1 scoring offense (56 points/game) in NCAA D1. After losing to Alabama, Texas, and Florida in back to back to back weeks, Arkansas won at Auburn and then was in some tough losses including a 2 point loss to Ole Miss and 1 point loss at Kentucky. Tulsa has played in ONE road game since early September – a 6 point win at SMU – and will be tested here against veterans QB Casey Dick and RB Michael Smith in front of the Razorback faithful.
NAVY (-7) over Temple – Last week vs. SMU, Navy attempted ZERO passes in a 34-7 victory. On the season, Navy is throwing up 310 rushing yards/game with the same triple option that Paul Johnson left behind and low and behold, it still can’t be stopped. In Temple’s last 3 games vs. Navy, the Owls have allowed almost 1,200 rushing yards at almost 7 yards/carry. Temple has had almost 10 days to prepare for this one after they needed 2 fourth quarter scoring drives to beat Frank Solich’s Ohio Bobcats at home. Temple allowed 210 rushing yards to Army’s option earlier this year and this is no Army option. Navy runs to their 6th straight bowl game after a win here.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-29.5) over Iowa State – After watching Nebraska dismantle Iowa State, I not so boldly predicted that Iowa State would not win another game this year. The Cyclone defense is giving up 423 yards and 32 points per game – both which rank 102nd in the country. After giving #1 Texas all they wanted last week, OSU finds itself in a sandwich game here with Texas Tech on deck. However, the Cowboys are playing in front of their home crowd and boast a rushing game with Kendall Hunter that lit Texas up for 217 yards last week (Texas was allowing 48 rushing yards/game). Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 7th in scoring offense and 8th in total offense and should take out their anger on the struggling Cyclones (losers of 6 straight). Against common opponents (Baylor and A&M), OSU is 2-0 ATS while they Cyclones lost both straight up by a combined 42 points.
SOUTH CAROLINA (-5.5) over Tennessee – The seat is starting to get really warm for Phil Fulmer at UT. The Vols are off to a dismal 3-5 start and are probably better off playing away from the angry home crowd this week. South Carolina’s 3 losses this year have all come by 7 points including last week’s loss at LSU. With 2 quality QB’s playing for time, look for the South Carolina offense to score points and be lead by a defense who will continue to make things miserable for Fulmer whose Vols are averaging only 78 rushing yards/game the last 6.
DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK
“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”
Florida (-5.5) over Georgia – The two best QBs in the SEC – Tim Tebow and Matthew Stafford – will face off in what is a National Championship eliminator game. The taunting Georgia did in the endzone last year after their first touchdown in a 42-30 win will certainly be in the back of the Gator’s minds. In the back of Georgia’s minds will be having to deal with Florida’s defense which is allowing 11.9 points/game. In fact, since Florida lost to Ole Miss, the Gators have outscored their opponents 152-33. Georgia is plagued with injuries right now with 3 offensive lineman and 2 defensive lineman (and another questionable for this game) out for the year. If you are thinking that 5.5 points is too many, ask yourself what team in the country right now you would take over Florida on a neutral site. If you say Texas, I’ll happily take your money.
Here is a quick Florida/Georgia preview:
I think I love her.