Take the Double Extra Points

Season: 36-31-1 ATS (54%)

Double Extra Lock: 5-2 ATS (71%)

Just like the Huskers, it was good to get back on the winning track last week capped by UCLA’s upset of Stanford as a home dog. Hopefully you loaded up on the Bruins and your bookie isn’t dodging more phone calls than Matthew Broderick in The Cable Guy. There are many sites out there that not only give you weekend picks against the spread, but also predict the final score of the game. With games on almost every night, we are clearly much too lazy to offer up predicted scores. And really, why would we give you a final score prediction when Vegas already provides it? Combining the over/under with the point spread allows you to get the exact final score that Vegas degenerates are betting will show up on oversized scoreboards when the 4th quarter clock hits 0:00. Here are projected final scores for this weekend’s AP Top 10: Ask yourself is any of these appear to be off.

  1. Texas 41 Oklahoma St 28
  2. Alabama 24 Tennessee 17
  3. Penn St 24 Ohio St 21
  4. Oklahoma 45 Kansas St 25
  5. Florida 37 Kentucky 11
  6. USC 36 Arizona 19
  7. Oklahoma St (above)
  8. Texas Tech 32 Kansas 34
  9. Georgia 23 LSU 25
  10. Ohio St (above)

The first game that jumps out to us is the 46 point over/under in the Penn St-Ohio St game. We don’t see that much scoring in a game that will feature two strong running games and solid defense. Texas Tech is also flying under the radar this week as an underdog playing a Kansas defense giving up over 250 passing yards per game and over 30 points in 3 or their last 4 vs I-A teams. That 66 point over could be in trouble as well with two solid offenses that don’t use much clock to score. Looking beyond the Top 10 provides some solid over/under picks for this week.

T. Rose

N’Western @ Indiana OVER (51) – We took N’Western last week in a romp over a fading Purdue team. Northwestern hasn’t scored more than 24 points on the road this year, but face an Indiana team that has given up 100 points over the past two weeks. Indiana should have QB Kellen Lewis available this week and he will be the difference in the offense. Indiana has scored just 29 points over the past 3 games, but should be able to get enough big plays to score 20 points against the Wildcat D. We like N’Western giving 8.5 in this one as well.

Colorado @ Missouri UNDER (63) – The Buffaloes have not scored more than 14 points in a game since September and have one of the worst offenses in the Big XII. Dan Hawkins benched his son in last week’s ugly 14-13 win over Kansas St and it’s unclear who will get the start in Columbia. Missouri’s offense has not looked good since the huge win in Lincoln and they get an underrated Colorado defense at home this week. Add in the fact that Chase Daniels has been gorging himself on Halloween candy since Monday and it’s likely that the Mizzou offense will be a step or 3 slow this week.

Boise St (-7) over SAN JOSE ST – This Friday night game features two of the best defenses in the country and the over/under is a meager (by WAC standards) 43 points. San Jose St is giving up just 270 yards per game and 16.6 point per game. Boise St has only allowed 1 team (Oregon) to score more than 7 points all season and is second in the country in scoring defense. While some will tell you this is a ‘trap’ game for Boise St as they needed 11 4th quarter points, including a FG as time expired, to pull out a 23-20 win the last time they visited San Jose, we don’t see any way San Jose St can generate enough offense to stay within the touchdown spread. The Spartans put up 31 points with just 201 yards of total offense against a terrible New Mexico St defense last week and they will have trouble moving the ball all night against the Broncos. You may want to look at the UNDER as well as a 24-7 type of game looks likely.

Sammy Vegas

FLORIDA (-24) over Kentucky – Last week, it took two passing touchdowns from Kentucky to defeat Arkansas 21-20 at home. This week, Kentucky and their #88 ranked offense get to travel to Gainesville to take on Florida and their #4 ranked defense. The Wildcats started the season 4-0 but now have lost 3 straight and face a Florida team that is playing angry. Even though Florida has Georgia on deck and will play conservatively on offense, look for Urban Meyer to build on that 30 point LSU win and have the Gators ready to go for next week.

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over Rutgers – Last year Pittsburgh lost at Rutgers by 4 points in which they had a touchdown called back in the final minute of the game for offensive pass interference. Since a week 1 loss to Bowling Green, the Panthers have quietly rolled off 6 straight including wins over Iowa, @ South Florida, and @ Navy. Rutgers has scored over 21 points once all season (vs. Morgan State) and continues to be one of the most disappointing teams in college football. At home for the first time in 3 weeks, look for Pittsburgh to keep their focus here as they continue to close in on Dave Wannstedt’s first Big East title.

Notre Dame (-11) over WASHINGTON – I’ve been scratching my empty head over this one for days. Washington is 0-6, has a lame duck coach, and has a defense giving up 482 yards. Jimmy Clausen continues to show his improvement from a year ago as he has 1633 yards, 14 touchdowns (8 Int), and a 62% completion percentage. Notre Dame has had two weeks now to shake off the loss at North Carolina where they outplayed the Tar Heels (outgained them by 150 yards) and realistically should be sitting 5-1 instead of 4-2. Look for a high scoring game which should inch Washington ever so closer to a winless season.

Double Extra Lock

HAWAII (+3.5) over Nevada – For the second week in a row, we’ll take a home underdog going up against a team they have beaten soundly at home since 2004. The Wolfpack have scored at will over the last 4 weeks, averaging over 46 points per game. They make the long trip to Honolulu this week to face a vastly improved Warrior defense that hasn’t given up 30 points in a game since an early season trip to Corvallis (another DXP winner). We’ll take the better defense getting more than a FG at home in a game that will win back all of your losses from the early games.


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