Gambling Futures Related To The Polls & Conferences

RJ Bell, CEO of Pregame.com and someone who might be affiliating DXP, recently pointed out some interesting things regarding the college football preseason odds.

As RJ said: “Las Vegas odds, properly analyzed, tell us what the betting experts really think. With the recent release of the USA Today College Football Poll, now is an interesting time to consider what the lone experts backing their opinions with millions of dollars really think.”

I agree. So let’s look at what he found. Here is the complete list of futures to win the BCS National Championship. Note that RJ’s numbers were taken from a composite of the various sportsbooks and ‘adjusted’ to take away the commission charged by the sports book.

For starters, these five teams below have a combined 50% chance of winning the National Championship:

  • Florida: 5 to 1
  • USC: 13 to 1
  • Texas: 14 to 1
  • Oklahoma: 14 to 1
  • Ohio State: 19 to 1

Both amazing and interesting when you consider that there are still 115 teams left in the field.

Secondly, of the teams that did hit the board to win the National Championship (any team not in the “field”), here are the breakdowns by conference:

  • SEC: 25% (9 teams)
  • Big 12: 20% (10 teams)
  • Big 10: 19% (7 teams)
  • Pac 10: 15% (8 teams)
  • ACC: 14% (11 teams)
  • Big East: 8% (6 teams)

Shocking when you consider that Florida has a better chance to win the National Championship than any team from the Pac-10, ACC, or Big East. Bell also points out that the ACC had 11 of 12 teams that odds on the board – the most of any conference.

At the time he did the article on Sunday, Ole Miss (ranked #10 in the coaches’ poll) and TCU (ranked #17) weren’t even in the top 54 according to the oddsmakers. Miami, FL., not ranked in the preseason poll, had the 15th highest odds on the board. Non-BCS schools also failed to make a strong showing. Boise State (ranked #16) had the 13th highest odds while Utah (ranked #18) was next with the 5oth highest odds.

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