Archive for the ‘Gambling’ Category

Dr. Bob Stoll Joins DXP To Bring You Statistical Analysis & Free Gambling Advice This Fall

August 18, 2009

“Oh man… You better hold on to the coin you flipped. Because this game keeps up like this, I’m going to have to borrow it.” – Walter Abrams, Two for the Money, 2005

Whether you like to gamble or not, it’s always interesting to take in some gaming angles from some of Vegas’ finest sports handicappers – especially in college football.

Consider this my early holiday present to you, football gamblers and statistics enthusiasts alike.

DXP and Dr. Bob Stoll from ‘Dr. Bob Sports‘ will be forming a partnership throughout the fall that will feature in-depth angles and wagering advice on Husker games, Big 12 games, and a few other select games from around the country each week.

About what he will bring you here:

“Dr. Bob is widely considered the most influential sports handicapper in the nation, and his betting recommendations regularly move point spreads by several points. Bob Stoll has been analyzing professional and college sports since his days studying statistics at UC Berkeley in the mid-80’s and his advanced mathematical models and knowledge of personnel allow him to forecast the outcomes of games with incredible accuracy. In 2007, both the Wall Street Journal and ESPN E60 ran stories describing his success, and he has also appeared twice on CNBC as well as on ABC and KTVU.

Useful not only within the sports betting realm, his write-ups also bring a unique, quantitative perspective to the casual fan. While most analysts value teams on what they’ve done, Bob works to find the hidden stories behind the statistics that describe what is most likely to happen in the future.

In fact, the average annual return on investment playing his Best Bets in football and basketball is an incredible 73% over the last 10 years.

Dr. Bob has a very realistic approach to sports betting (you will never hear him refer to a game as a “Lock”) and, in the long run, if you follow his Best Bet advice and use a disciplined money management strategy YOU WILL WIN.

We look forward to posting his thoughts on some of College Football’s biggest games.”

If you aren’t buying into that, then read “The Man Who Shook Up Vegas” from the Wall Street Journal and watch this ESPN E60 story:

Dr. Bob’s website can be accessed by clicking on the link and there you can look a little deeper into his past to view his credibility. You can also view other television interviews as well as samples from last season. You are also given the opportunity to purchase single game and season packages – if you so choose – which are very reasonable. Take a look for yourself.

This is going to be a win-win for everyone here. If it wasn’t, trust me I wouldn’t put it here. This will no doubt be an exciting opportunity to have an extremely credible sports handicapper join us this fall with his statistical models and analysis.

Just win, baby.

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The 2009 Week 1 College Football Lines & Some Housekeeping

August 11, 2009

Football season has officially arrived.

Several sportsbooks have released their opening lines for the first weekend. Click here for the complete listings. Here are some of the games that might be of interest to you:

Thursday, September 3rd

7:00 PM ET
(127) South Carolina
(128) North Carolina State -3 (44)

10:15 PM ET
(131) Oregon
(132) Boise State -6.5 (60.5)


Saturday, September 5th

3:30 PM ET
(165) Baylor
(166) Wake Forest -2 (53)

3:30 PM ET
(155) Georgia
(156) Oklahoma State -6.5 (62.5)

3:30 PM ET
(153) Nevada
(154) Notre Dame -16 (57.5)

3:30 PM ET
(161) Missouri
(162) Illinois -7 (60)

7:00 PM ET
(197) Florida Atlantic
(198) Nebraska -22 (60)

7:00 PM ET
(159) Brigham Young
(160) Oklahoma -21 (68)

7:00 PM ET
(179) New Mexico
(180) Texas A&M -14 (56)

7:00 PM ET
(201) UL Monroe
(202) Texas -40 (62.5)

8:00 PM ET
(181) Virginia Tech
(182) Alabama -3.5 (37)

9:00 PM ET
(185) Buffalo
(186) Texas El Paso -7.5 (60)

Sunday, September 6th

7:00 PM ET
(207) Colorado State
(208) Colorado -13 (54)

Monday, September 7th

4:00 PM ET
(209) Cincinnati
(210) Rutgers -7 (50.5)

8:00 PM ET
(211) Miami
(212) Florida State -4 (48.5)

Key items of note:

  • Iowa State plays North Dakota State, Kansas plays Northern Colorado, and Kansas State plays UMass so good luck getting a line. Not exactly scheduling competition, aye?
  • Keep an eye on UTEP at home vs. Buffalo. Kansas travels to UTEP to face Qb Trevor Vittatoe in week 2.
  • The Missouri/Illinois line has shot up to 7 from 3 for Illinois. Too many question marks in the secondary to handle Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn?
  • The Oklahoma State/Georgia line has also moved up – from 3 to 6.5 for OSU. New Georgia Qb Joe Cox better bring his ‘A’ game for the Bulldogs to have a chance.
  • Baylor/Wake Forest is a huge measuring stick for the young Bears and Robert Griffin. WFU returns 9 starters on offense including Qb Riley Skinner. 2 points seems low.
  • No doubt all Husker eyes will be watching Alabama/Virginia Tech on Saturday night. It’s also going to be a terrible game to wager on. Save your money for Rutgers on Monday night.

For those of you who have enjoyed our regular ‘Take the Double Extra Points‘ feature at DXP, it will be back and better than ever. We’re proud to say that our ‘Double Extra Lock’ finished last season with a staggering 8-3 ATS (73%) record in the regular season and a 5-1 ATS (83%) record in the bowl season. (Feel free to check our numbers in the archives.) Could Nevada, UTEP, Rutgers, or Nebraska be the first lock of the season? I think there’s a strong possibility one of them will. And of course, the lovely college coeds have also signed on again for the season which is great news for everyone.

Secondly, we will be doing a few pick ’em leagues again. I’ll have all the information here when it becomes available and we hope to get several other Big 12 blogs to join in again. If you recall, there has been some real domination going on over the past year from the regular season and the bowl season leagues from the Husker side. I’m not about to begin to think that’s going to change anytime soon.

And finally, some important news to get to. It appears that we are almost ready – not quite – to make a move here. It won’t be much of a change, but we are going to be getting rid of the ‘blogspot’ at the end of our URL and become simply http://www.doubleextrapoint.com. It’s not a radical change, but the appearance will receive an upgrade as well as some new features that I hope you’ll enjoy. When the time comes near, I’ll be sure to let you in on some information as well as ask for your input on a few things.

In the meantime, sit tight and enjoy yourself. Football is almost here.

Gambling Futures Related To The Polls & Conferences

August 11, 2009

RJ Bell, CEO of Pregame.com and someone who might be affiliating DXP, recently pointed out some interesting things regarding the college football preseason odds.

As RJ said: “Las Vegas odds, properly analyzed, tell us what the betting experts really think. With the recent release of the USA Today College Football Poll, now is an interesting time to consider what the lone experts backing their opinions with millions of dollars really think.”

I agree. So let’s look at what he found. Here is the complete list of futures to win the BCS National Championship. Note that RJ’s numbers were taken from a composite of the various sportsbooks and ‘adjusted’ to take away the commission charged by the sports book.

For starters, these five teams below have a combined 50% chance of winning the National Championship:

  • Florida: 5 to 1
  • USC: 13 to 1
  • Texas: 14 to 1
  • Oklahoma: 14 to 1
  • Ohio State: 19 to 1

Both amazing and interesting when you consider that there are still 115 teams left in the field.

Secondly, of the teams that did hit the board to win the National Championship (any team not in the “field”), here are the breakdowns by conference:

  • SEC: 25% (9 teams)
  • Big 12: 20% (10 teams)
  • Big 10: 19% (7 teams)
  • Pac 10: 15% (8 teams)
  • ACC: 14% (11 teams)
  • Big East: 8% (6 teams)

Shocking when you consider that Florida has a better chance to win the National Championship than any team from the Pac-10, ACC, or Big East. Bell also points out that the ACC had 11 of 12 teams that odds on the board – the most of any conference.

At the time he did the article on Sunday, Ole Miss (ranked #10 in the coaches’ poll) and TCU (ranked #17) weren’t even in the top 54 according to the oddsmakers. Miami, FL., not ranked in the preseason poll, had the 15th highest odds on the board. Non-BCS schools also failed to make a strong showing. Boise State (ranked #16) had the 13th highest odds while Utah (ranked #18) was next with the 5oth highest odds.

Vegas Insider’s College Football Futures

July 22, 2009

Nobody does it better than Vegas – at least that’s what Stu Feiner tells us when we do our “Take the Double Extra Points” regular feature here. (insert cheap plug here: our Double Extra Lock in 2008: 8-3 ATS (73%) – Regular Season; 4-1 ATS (80%) – Bowl Season!!!)

Here are some college football futures from Vegas Insider you can start wagering on right at this moment if you need to lock something in (girl not included.)


Nebraska’s odds to win the National Championship: 50/1

  • Those are the same odds as Clemson, Georgia Tech, Oregon, and North Carolina.
  • There are 15 teams with better odds, including Oklahoma State at 30/1, Virginia Tech at 20/1, Texas at 11/2, and Oklahoma at 9/2.


ODDS TO WIN THE 2009 BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Team Open
Texas 13/10
Oklahoma 8/5
Kansas 5/1
Nebraska 5/1
Oklahoma State 8/1
Missouri 20/1
Colorado 20/1
Texas Tech 20/1
Kansas State 40/1
Baylor 40/1
Texas A&M 40/1
Iowa State 75/1

Delaware Wins With Sports Gambling (minus the bookie fee)

June 2, 2009

Wilmington, here I come.


Last Thursday, all five of the justices on the Delaware Supreme Court decided to uphold a sports lottery law that was signed by Governor Jack Markell earlier in May. In other words, legalized sports gambling – which will include NFL and college football – will be coming to Delaware this fall. When Congress passed the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (which banned states from being in the bookmaking business), Delaware was one of only four states – along with Nevada, Oregon, and Montana – that had sports betting laws already in its books.

The Delaware Constitution states that ‘lottery games that provide some skill to win are permissible’ and that lottery games don’t have to be based on chance alone. The constitution, however, does state that chance must be the dominant factor. Shockingly, straight bets – like the ones we make to our bookies on college and NFL games with the spread, money-line, and over/unders – are considered to be the most lucrative form of wagering for the casinos.

Not surprisingly, the NFL has continued to fight this law every step of the way. After submitting their own brief, one of their representatives, Wilmington lawyer Kenneth Nachbar, addressed the court at a hearing in May. “That’s not luck. That’s skill,” said Nachbar. He went on to say that the NFL will fight this bill with a state of federal lawsuit.

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said in an e-mail: “We expect that everyone involved in the administration of sports leagues — professional and amateur — will review today’s action and evaluate its impact as other decisions are made by Delaware officials and the Delaware Supreme Court.”

The irony here is that why the NFL is continuing to fight sports gambling in Delaware because ‘bettors will have too good of a chance to win,’ they just approved a business venture that will allow teams to put their logo on lottery tickets. In other words, after you lose on your $10 scratch-n-sniff lotto ticket, you can keep the ticket as a souvenir. Both the owners of the NFL teams and the state lottery will get a share of the profits from the lottery sales. Evidently, bettors don’t have a good enough chance to win on the lottery ticket so therefore, its acceptable.

Governor Markell has said that he hopes to have three sports books at Delaware’s horse tracks by the first weekend of football this fall. Markell stated that the addition of the sports betting and table games at Delaware’s casinos could raise at a minimum $50 million, which would in part help “fill a projected $800 million hole in the state’s Fiscal Year 2010 budget.”

Personally, I think the governor is significantly low-balling that estimate. According to my Google map below, I see that Wilmington, DE is 83.8 miles from Atlantic City.

Let’s think about this. Although Delaware can’t offer the parties and lights of Atlantic City, most of the same heavy bettors that frequent the casinos just happen to claim football as their favorite American past time. If you are looking to get out of the house to gamble, which most people that go to Atlantic City are, then why not head on over to Delaware where you get football, horses, and table games? It will definitely save you the headache, the time, and the cost of a cross-country trip to Las Vegas. Furthermore, it doesn’t hurt that New York, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C. are a hop, skip, and jump away from what should make a pretty good Saturday or Sunday. Cha-Ching.

My advice to Governor Markell: If you build it, they will come.

Take the Double Extra Points: Super Bowl Extravaganza

January 30, 2009

College Bowl Season: 17-13 ATS (57%)
Double Extra Lock: 13-4 ATS (76%)

First off, sorry we haven’t been around for the past week. Starting next week, we will be back with more of the same. That will include a survey of what you want more of. It’s a tough life being a Nebraska blogger and it’s tougher knowing what the readers that pass by here want.

However, I feel like I owe it to everyone that has been taking our advice this year on our ‘Double Extra Locks‘ to make a few Super Bowl picks for you at the last minute. When I get the time, I will dissect that 13-4 record vs. the spread that we had this year. Feel free to go back to the DXP archives and check for yourself. It was a good year.

pittsburghlogo-6.5

2009 Super Bowl 43 Betting Over/Under 46.5

Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin’s best move as a head coach was retaining the great Dick LeBeau as defensive coordinator. Ken Whisenhunt’s – who was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers for 3 years – best move as a head coach – because of this game – was the hiring of OL Russ Grimm, who makes up a total of 8 assistant coaches that once coached at Pittsburgh under Bill Cowher or Mike Tomlin. Grimm knows Lebeau’s hectic defensive scheme and will have Kurt Warner prepared.

Super Bowl XLII could come down to the Steelers shutting down the Cardinals’ offense dynamo in Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerlad is the ressurection of Jerry Rice as he has defeated his record for post-season receiving yards (419), while having 1,431 yards and 12 TD’s this season.

Steeler’s WR Nate Washington and WR Santonio Holmes might be the receivers you need to remember after this. Washington is the #4 receiver for the Steelers, he did have 46 receptions this season with a 14.8 yard/average while Holmes had 59 receptions and a 15.5 yard/average. And althougy ou shouldn’t sleep on former Texas WR Limas Sweed either, don’t forget Heinz Ward and Heath Miller – the two most underrated players at their position in the NFL.

Remember the question about how big of hands college quarterbacks have? Check this one out. “Super Bowl footballs are different than regular-season and playoff footballs because they have more paint on them from decals and logos. Equipment men also aren’t given the extra time during the week to break in all the balls that will be used in the game. It‘s not the easiest thing to grip in the world and [quarterbacks] are the only position that has to deal with it on a constant basis,” Roethlisberger said.

And with the same article – this time referring to referees, “Referee Terry McCauley will be calling the game, leading an all-star group of officials that rated as the best in 2008. His presence could dictate a lower-scoring game. McCauley is a very good official and has Super Bowl experience. His regular-season games averaged a total of 41.93 points, the sixth lowest among the 17 referees and a little more than two points per game below the league average. Over the past three years, though, his games averaged 39.36 points, the lowest average among the 17 referees. The Cardinals win shootouts. The Steelers win lower-scoring games.


DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Arizona: Big Ben has been there and done that. Remember what the Eagles did to the Cardinals in the second half of the NFC Championship? Remember that. The Steelers are better coached and have more talent.

UNDER 46.5:
No way this is under 40. Not even close. Don’t think for a second that Kurt Warner has more than 2 touchdowns and Ben Roethlisberger has more than 2 touchdowns. Not going to happen. Combine the two touchdowns and take a few field goals and you are still breathing easy.

Who are you betting on Super Bowl XLIII?
( polls)

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 5

January 5, 2009

Bowl Season: 15-12 ATS (56%)
Double Extra Lock: 8-3 ATS (73%) – Regular Season; 4-1 ATS (80%) – Bowl Season

Tostitos Fiesta
Ohio State vs. Texas ( Glendale, AZ)
University of Phoenix Stadium, Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, FOX

Ohio State (+9) over Texas – The Big 12 South has thus far been a major disappointment in the bowl season. They have looked terrible in both of their bowl games as Oregon and Ole Miss dominated Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Ohio State brings a defense here that allowed only 1 opponent all year (USC) to score more than 21 points and held 6 opponents to 10 points or less. Texas and Qb Colt McCoy scored more than 28 points in every game this season and more than 42 points in 8 games. When I look back at what Ok. State RB Kendall Hunter did to the Texas run defense, I can’t help but think Qb Terrelle Pryor and Rb Beanie Wells won’t have at least some success running around Texas’s defensive front. Whenever you have a great defense matched up a great offense, always side with the better defense – especially when they are spotted 9 points.

GMAC
Ball State vs. Tulsa (Mobile, AL)
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, ESPN

Ball State (+3) over Tulsa – This game features 2 of the best QBs (statistically speaking) in the NCAA. Tulsa’s David Johnson threw for 3,866 yards with 43 TDs and 18 INTs while Ball State’s Nate Davis threw for 3,446 yards with 26 TDs and only 7 INTs. The big advantage that Ball State brings to this one is RB Miquale Lewis, the leading rusher in the MAC, who rushed for 1,701 yards and 22 TDs on the season. Both teams are off bad losses at their respective conference championship games where both teams played awful. Ball State somehow let Turner Gill’s Buffalo Bulls steal away the MAC Championship and Tulsa’s David Johnson threw 5 INTs vs. East Carolina. Go with the more talented Cardinals as RB Lewis will be the difference here if Ball State gets up early in this shootout.

Double Extra Lock

FedEx BCS Championship Game
Florida vs. Texas (Miami, FL)
Dolphin Stadium, January 8, 2009, 8 p.m. EST, FOX

Florida (-3.5) over Oklahoma – To better understand Oklahoma’s defensive struggles this season, read here. Florida holds the defensive advantage here and it’s not even close. Despite Florida’s difficult schedule, the Gator defense ranks 8th in total defense, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd in pass efficiency defense while the Gator offense ranks 17th in total offense and 3rd in scoring offense. Although Oklahoma brings in the nation’s #1 offense, their defense has been suspect. The Sooner defense ranks 63rd in total defense and 58th in scoring defense as they have given up more than 26 points to 7 opponents. Since Florida’ loss to Ole Miss, the Gators have rolled off 9 straight games and went 8-0 ATS winning by an average of 49-13 even without Percy Harvin for much of that time and who is somewhat questionable for this one. Florida and Urban Meyer’s dominance in college football continues in a big way here as they make it their 2nd championship in the the last 3 years.

Florida 48 Oklahoma 30

(Same shirt, Erin?)

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 4

December 31, 2008
To Big Red Country:

My Happy New Year’s wish for you
Is for your best year yet (in recruiting),
A year where life is peaceful (stay away Callahan),
And what you want, you get (Big XII Championship.)

A year in which you cherish
The past year’s memories (9-4?),
And live your life
Full of bright expectancies (12-2 next season.)

I wish for you a holiday
With happiness galore (and a Gator Bowl win);
And when it’s done, I wish you
Happy New Year, and many more (National Championships.)

We want to thank everyone who stops by DXP as our 2008 edition is officially in the books. We wish everyone a great 2009 and especially to Jeffie and the future Mrs. Jeffie Husker, who will be launching the second version of MTV’s ‘Newlyweds‘ next summer. I would like to be able to tell you what you can expect in 2009 from us, but as you know by now, we really have no clue about anything.

We know return you back to the bookie sheet with some analysis.

(A reminder that the ‘‘XtraWatchabilityPoint’ for this year’s bowl games are now being done by our game critic extraordinaire, A. Rose. The games are ranked in line with the watchability factor of dancers at five Las Vegas area clubs. From worst to first, they are: Glitter Gulch, Cheetah’s, Olympic Gardens, Scores, and the Spearmint Rhino.)

Thursday Jan. 1 11:00 am ET ESPN

Iowa (-3) over South Carolina – Only after Iowa’s upset win over Penn State late in the season did people start to take notice of the Hawkeyes and RB Shonn Greene, who finished the season the season with 1,729 yards and rushed for at least 100 yards in every game. Iowa (9-4) lost their 4 games this year by a combined 12 points while South Carolina finished the season with two losses to Florida and Clemson by a combined score of 87-20. South Carolina’s defense (#12) is great but their offense (#97) is horrid due to Qb play (go figure.) Iowa’s #13 ranked defense should fare well in this spot and as long as Iowa gets minimal mistakes from mobile Qb Ricky Stanzi, they win.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – You’re looking at Olympic Gardens again. It’s watchable, but don’t expect any high flying action. If no make-up or +2 enhancements is your thing, it could be a decent time, but don’t be surprised when you wish the cocktail waitresses were the ones with their clothes off.

Thursday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET CBS

Nebraska (+3) over Clemson

This is a great matchup for Nebraska.

The only reason Clemson’s defense is thought of highly – #15 total defense and #9 pass defense – is simply a result of they haven’t played a passing team all year. Nebraska’s balanced rush/pass attack hasn’t missed a beat this under Shawn Watson as they have averaged 458 yards/game (#12) while ranking #36 in rushing and #14 in passing. Bo Pelini’s focus here will almost solely be on stopping RBs James Davis and CJ Spiller (leads the ACC in all-purpose yards.) Shockingly, Clemson’s rushing offense only put up 120 yards/game while Qb Cullen Harper threw for only 2,395 yards with 11 Tds/12 Ints – which combined puts Clemson’s offense in at #81.

The HUGE advantage Nebraska has here is at both lines. Clemson’s defenisve line averaged only 1.17 sacks/game (106th) while their offensive line gave up 2.33 sack/game (94th.) Nebraska’s defensive line, anchored by DT Ndamukong Suh who lead all Big 12 DL in tackles, accounted for 80% of the team’s sacks. And with the offensive line being as healthy as they have been since fall camp, expect the Huskers to dominate both lines of scrimmage and walk away here with plenty of momentum heading into next season as the Big XII North favorites.

Nebraska 34 Clemson 27

XtraWatchabilityPoint – I give this a Scores night rating. There’s something intriguing about Russian girls who couldn’t speak English 2 months ago, but have now mastered the art of emptying your wallet. Solid turnaround and highly watchable.

Thursday Jan. 1 4:30 pm ET ABC

Penn State (+10) over USC – Pete Carroll comes into the Granddaddy of Them All with a 5-0 lifetime record vs. the Big 10. This season, USC is 5-1 vs. bowl teams and 2-4 ATS while Penn State is 4-1 vs. bowl teams and 4-2 ATS. Against both runner-ups in the conference, USC handled Ohio State while Penn State handled Oregon State. Penn State wants to be here and although Carroll has said the Trojans are excited, they really wanted a Big 12 or SEC opponent for this year’s bowl game. Go with Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions + the 10 points here as this Penn State team will come ready to play in what should be a low-scoring game that will be decided in the 4th quarter.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – This rates as a Spearmint Rhino game. Some of the best talent you will find across the country makes this very watchable. You’re likely to find at least one future Vivid or Wicked contract girl on stage.

Thursday Jan. 1 8:30 pm ET FOX

Virginia Tech (+3) over Cincinnati – Virginia Tech has now lost 4 straight BCS bowl games while this is Cincinnati’s first game on this stage. The Hokies defense has been their strong point this year as they have allowed only 17.5 points/game and are lead by shutdown CBs Victor Harris and Stephan Virgil, who should slow down great Bearcat WR Mardy Gilyard. Hokie Qb Tyrod Taylor and Rb Darren Evans should provide enough of a rushing game for Va Tech, who is 89-8 when out-rushing their opponents. Cincinnati will need a great game from Qb Tony Pike as Nebraska and Florida State were the only teams this year to score exactly 30 points on the Hokies.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Glitter Gulch material. Unbelievable how a once proud institution has degraded to this unwatchable mess. If the cabbie didn’t kick you out on Fremont Street for making Al-Qaida comments about his name, you’d be at Scores by now.

Friday Jan. 2 2:00 pm ET FOX

Mississippi (+5) over Texas Tech – The Rebels’ 4 losses this season came by an average of 4.8 points/game, including a 4 point loss to Alabama. Qb Jevan Snead, a transfer from Texas, leads a potent Ole Miss offense that includes 2 running backs, Cordera Eason and Dexter McCluster, who were #7 and #8 in the SEC. Houston Nutt’s ‘Wild Rebel’ offense is run by McCluster, whose favorite target out of the formation is WR Mike Wallace, who had an astonishing 20.1 yards/reception this season. The Texas Tech defense has been soft at times this year and with the fact that Ole Miss wants to be here much more than Texas Tech, watch out for the outright upset.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Solid Olympic Gardens watchability rating. Not the best of the best, but it’s still fun to watch that one hot stripper among a group of average talent get back up and stage and hopefully give you a 2-for-1 song special back in VIP.

Friday Jan. 2 5:00 pm ET ESPN

East Carolina (-2) over Kentucky – On paper, this game is about even as you can get. Both teams sport offenses that have been less than stellar (East Carolina #87 in points scored and Kentucky #90) this year due to injuries. These two teams come into this game on completely different patterns. Kentucky lost 4 of their last 5 games including Florida and Georgia while East Carolina won 6 of 7. Kentucky will be without starting Qb Randall Cobb, who recently had knee surgery, for the first time this season. East Carolina should be excited here to get a shot at the SEC and add to their impressive 2008 resume which included wins over West Virginia and Virginia Tech.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Cheetahs on the worst imaginable night. Very unwatchable and even shocking to the talent downgrade after a promising start. A whole bunch of no-namers and very few that will make to the Spearmint.

Friday Jan. 2 8:00 pm ET FOX

Alabama (-9) over Utah – Losing OT Andre Smith isn’t going to help Utah much in this one as Alabama still holds a big advantage in the trenches. The only notable defense Utah faced all season, TCU, held them to only 13 points while Alabama held 9 opponents this season to 14 points or less. Utah last played back on November 22nd while Alabama last played on December 6th which means Utah will be going on well over a month without any game experience. Nick Saban’s Tide has way too much talent here for a Utah team that hasn’t seen an SEC team since the early 80’s. Rb Glen Coffee and WR Julio Jones will provide big plays for a surprisingly good Alabama offense that did move the ball on Florida.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – The ultimate Scores battle of fresh faces vs battle tested veterans. The up-start talent will make this very watchable against the much more talented A-teamers. Think of Gina Lynn from The Sopranos at Bada Bing in a pole war against the Bucci twins (just do the Google image search.)


Double Double Extra Lock

Saturday Jan. 3 12:00 pm ET ESPN2

Connecticut (-5) over Buffalo – I’m routing for Turner Gill here as much as you but let’s be realistic here. Buffalo managed a turnover ratio this year of +1.15 (6th) which would explain their 8 wins including a miracle vs. Ball State, a game where they were outgained by 202 yards. UConn RB Donald Brown had 1,923 yards with 17 TDs despite horrible Qb play (4 Tds/17 Ints.) The Huskies have plenty of talent on a defensive unit that allowed only 282 yards and 20 points/game. The miracle Bulls might be one miracle too short here.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Another Glitter Gulch night, but at least there’s there some talent on Fremont Street after the World Series of Poker Main Event. The watchability might be low, but don’t be surprised to see some talent.

Thursday Jan. 1 1:00 pm ET ABC

Georgia (-8) over Michigan State – Remember when Georgia was preseason #1? Neither do I, but I do remember how talented they are. To go along with future NFL 1st rounders Qb Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia has the SEC’s top 2 leaders in receiving yards with WRs AJ Green and Mohamed Massaquoi. In Michigan State’s 3 games this season in which they were an underdog, the Spartans went 0-3 and lost by an average of 25 points/game. In fact, they were 0-5 ATS vs. the 5 teams they played this year with a winning record. If Georgia shows up, this one gets ugly.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Another Scores battle. You have the highly rated former Vivid starlets that couldn’t live up to expectations and are relegated to making side money on a $29.99/month website that has 10 subscribers. It’s watchable, but the possibilities could have been so much more

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 3

December 29, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points: Bowl Extravaganza Part 2

December 23, 2008

GSeason: 55-47-1 ATS (54%)
Bowl Season: 2-3 ATS
Double Extra Lock: 9-4 ATS (69%)

There are only two times throughout the year when gamblers should take a leave of absence. One is March Madness and the other being the college football bowl season. To be able to know what type of performance your team is going to give is one of the great mysteries of life. However, we are men, therefore we must gamble.

Just a quick reminder that the ‘‘XtraWatchabilityPoint’ for this year’s bowl games are now being done by our game critic extraordinaire, A. Rose. The games are ranked in line with the watchability factor of dancers at five Las Vegas area clubs, which all have been thoroughly scouted on official DXP business trips. From worst to first, they are the Glitter Gulch, Cheetah’s, Olympic Gardens, Scores, and the Spearmint Rhino. For example, the ’06 Texas/USC title game would have been Spearmint Rhino material at 11pm on a Saturday night. You have one eye trained on the girl giving you a lap dance and another on the stage at all times.

POINSETTIA BOWL
December 23 7:00 pm CST ESPN
Boise State (+3) over TCU – One of these defenses has to give. TCU is ranked in the top five in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass-efficiency defense, sacks, red-zone defense, third-down defense and first downs allowed. Boise is ranked #3 in scoring defense as they have allowed 10 pts or less in 8 games this year. Both offenses have been proficient this year as Boise is 13th and TCU is 29th in total offense. Listen for the guys in the booth to drive home the point that one of TCU’s best defensive players, All-MWC LB Robert Henson, can’t help when he isn’t playing because of academics. If All-WAC QB Kellen Moore can have any success throwing the ball, expect Boise’s run game to open up enough to put more points on the board than TCU.

XtraWatchabilityPoint – You and your buddies told yourselves you would wait until the last night to hit up the Spearmint Rhino, but after being in Vegas for 3 hours, you already have the limo ready to roll on a Thursday night. The amount of underrated talent at the Rhino will make your head spin, and you could end up seeing the next Alektra Blue working the pole tonight.

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL

December 24 7:00 pm CST EPSN
Notre Dame (-1) over Hawaii – Notre Dame has lost 9 straight bowl games and a loss here would give Chuck Weis his 2nd losing season in only 4 years. At 7-6, Hawaii defeated New Mexico State, Idaho, and Washington State down the stretch to become bowl eligible. Hawaii’s leading rusher is posting a 36 yards/game average this season which is going to make inexperienced QB Greg Alexander beat Notre Dame’s talented secondary. Hawaii’s defense is bad – 72nd in scoring defense and 63rd in passing defense bad – and will get exposed by QB Jimmy Clausen and his boy toys, WRs Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. I’m pulling for Hawaii as much as the next guy is, but I also realize I have a gambling record that I need to improve.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Hitting up Cheetah’s on a Friday night is almost sure to make you wonder just how good these girls could be with some implants and a little training on the pole. The talent is there, but it’s such a waste these girls will never see the big time. Still, there is some entertainment value in watching a hot chick slip and fall on stage multiple times from the10 shots of tequila and not lose her job.

MOTOR CITY BOWL

December 26 6:30 pm CST ESPN

C. Michigan (-6.5) over Florida Atlantic – Although Captain Kangaroo is bringing his taunted Owls and his lifetime 5-0 bowl record to this one, Central Michigan really has nothing to fear. I’m pretty sure this game has by far the two worst defenses in bowl game history. Central Michigan sports the 104th ranked defense while Florida Atlantic has the 92nd ranked defense. Beyond atrocious. Therefore, we need to ask which team will score more. Central Michigan has the 13th ranked passing offense and 23rd ranked total offense and is lead by 7th year starting QB Dan LeFevour, who lead the team in rushing and the MAC in total offense. Florida Atlantic is lead by a veteran QB of their own with Rusty Smith, but the offense ranks an abysmal 101st in turnover margin.
XtraWatchabilityPoint– We’ve all been there. The Glitter Gulch said “no cover” and “1 drink minimum” and you figured even though it’s Monday at 11am, you’ve got nothing better to do, right? Once you see there is a single Filipino girl who can’t speak English and only gets an A for cup size, you realize every shred of self-respect you might have had is long gone for watching this pathetic display.

MEINKE CAR CARE BOWL
December 27 12:00 pm CST ESPN
W. Virginia (-1) over N. Carolina – Trying to figure what teams will show up here is like trying to figure out what the girl you are hitting on at the bar all night will look like when the lights go on. North Carolina has blow-out wins over Rutgers, Connecticut, Georgia Tech, and Boston College to go along with losses to NC State and Maryland. West Virginia has wins over South Florida, Auburn, Connecticut, and Rutgers to go along with losses to East Carolina and Colorado. Carolina’s struggles at the end of the season were clearly the result of losing QB TJ Yates and WR Brandon Tate. The schizophrenic West Virginia offense (65th) is much better than North Carolina (95th) and QB Pat White will lead his senior-laden team in a going away party here.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – An off night at Score’s still isn’t the worst thing you can watch. There’s some underachieving talent and some surprisingly hot girls you never knew existed in the Czech Republic causing you to complete an on-line passport application at 4am and apply for multiple Eastern European visas.

EMERALD BOWL
December 27 7:00 pm CST ESPN
Cal (-8) over Miami, FL – Miami is without QB Robert Marve which isn’t going to help an offense that can get an average of only 328 total yards/game. Cal RB Jahvid Best is, in my opinion, the best running back in NCAA and it’s not close (no offense Shon Greene). Although he was hampered much of the year with injuries, he still managed 8.0 yards/carry and had a whopping 628 yards rushing in his last 3 games. In this game, he gets to face a Miami run defense that is ranked 69th and allowed 256 yards/game in their last 3. Cal’s defense, who held Oregon to 16 points and USC to 17 points, is too good to let the struggling Canes’ offense score much at all with their 2nd string QB.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – Cheetah’s just isn’t what it used to be. There’s some young starters here that have moved on to the pros in the past, but it’s still a rebuilding period. Once the bar tab gets out of hand you won’t have a hard time dragging yourself out of this place.

Double Extra Lock

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
December 27 3:30 pm CST ESPN

Florida State (-5) over Wisconsin -If there is a better coach than Bobby Bowden (19-9-1) when it comes to bowl games, then convince me. Wisconsin, who is 7-5 and finished the season with an overtime win vs. Cal Poly, is overmatched in every area here. RB PJ Hill will be the only weapon Wisconsin will have and unfortunately he gets to face a Florida State defense that is ranked #14 overall and has the #1 third down defense in NCAA. The day isn’t going to be any better for Badger QB Dustin Sherer – poster boy for the phrase ‘statue in the pocket’ – as he boasts a 115 QB rating with 5 TDs/5Ints and a total of 42 rushes for 10 yards on the season. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, you can’t coach speed and you might witness the biggest example you’ll see this bowl season of just that. Florida State is loaded with talent and their football team is pretty good as well.
XtraWatchabilityPoint – It’s USC song girl night at Olympic Gardens. Just like the SDSU girls, the college co-eds from USC are making the 45 minute flight on a weekly basis, only to find a sugar daddy or at least pay the steep tuition bills. You are shocked to find out the payback period for the +2’s in this place averages one weekend.