Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Season: 44-40-1 ATS (52%)
“I’ve done an excellent job in every area.” Bill Callahan and Sammy Vegas, Oct. 23, commenting on their performances this season so far.
Alright, at least I’m not going to lie. I sucked last week. And while my right hand man Timmy Rose was in Europe wasting his days away in brothels and bubbles, I had to go solo which went up in flames faster than, well you know.
We usually don’t pick up strangers who give up on us after a few bad weeks, but I’m going to go with my instincts on this one. Saddle up partner!!!
KANSAS STATE (-24.5) over Baylor: The fightin’ Bears have lost their last 5 Big 12 away games by 55-19. Last week at OSU, K State had over 500 yards of offense, blew a 4th quarter 14 pt lead, and lost on a last second field goal. Baylor brings in a pathetic spread offense that has to match up against the #8 pass D in the country. Besides, Coach Ron Prince needs to start eating up these cupcakes just for the weigh in against Mangino’s Jayhawks.
AUBURN (-17.5) over Mississippi: Ole Miss remains the only winless team in the SEC and was destroyed last week by an Arkansas team that Auburn held to 67 yards rushing (yeah, the same team with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones). As DXP reader Andrew has posted here, maybe Tommy Tuberville wouldn’t be such a bad candidate. After all he both praised and criticized his team after they beat Florida on the road, destroyed Arkansas on the road, and then lost on a questionable last second 25 yard ‘Hail Mary’ that cost them at LSU. With similar or maybe more talent imagine Nebraska’s results in those games? Imagine Bill Callahan’s comments. There would have a lot of ****-sucking amongst the coaching staff on that plane ride home.
TEXAS (-21) over Nebraska: I’ll give you one comparison. Iowa State outgained Nebraska by 46 yards in Lincoln and Texas outgained ISU by 286 in Ames. Texas’ players are physically healthy and Nebraska’s players are mentally unhealthy. Nebraska is 0-7 ATS the last 7 and is giving up 496 yards/game. One of the absurd comments to come out of Billy C.’s mouth at the press conference, when asked why RBs Marcus Mendoza and Cody Glenn didn’t play (as he said they would), ‘we’re just in a rhythm with those other players right now.’ Rhythm? Huh?
MISSOURI (-28) over Iowa State: Okay, I was wrong. Missouri is for real. Iowa State has the #106 rated pass defense in the country and has lost their Big 12 games by an average of 27 a game. If you are smart, expect a let down by both teams as ISU hung tough with Oklahoma and Missouri destroyed the potent T. Tech Raiders. However, ISU will be playing youth, as recommended by Dr. D at IU, as Coach Chizek starts to look ahead.
Weekly I Shouldn’t Be Looking This Game Up Pick
Troy (-4) over ARKANSAS STATE: Arkansas State was destroyed last week by MTSU, 7-24 at home, and out-gained by 246 yards. Troy worked out in this great spot last week as they destroyed N. Texas by 38, out-gained them by 300 yards, had 7 TO’s against them (yeah 7), and oh yeah, are on a 10-2 ATS streak. I got more, but this girl to my left just invited me over for picking Troy two weeks in a row. Sorry, gotta go.
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Arizona: Speaking of coaches about to get fired, let’s look at a game in Seattle where both head coaches will be more pre-occupied with updating their resumes than calling plays. While Washington has lost 5 straight, they’ve played much tougher competition than Arizona and have Stanford on deck. The Wildcat spread offense has struggled on the road this year, averaging just 16 points per game.
EAST CAROLINA (-14) over UAB: UAB returned just 8 starters back this year and have been taking a pounding on both sides of the ball. This is a team with 20 fewer scholarship players than almost every other program and they have just 1 victory over I-A competition. This is a revenge game and Homecoming for East Carolina and they find themselves tied atop of the C-USA East standings with Southern Miss. UAB will be calling A Rose for tips on cougar hunting by the half.
LOUISVILLE (-11) over Pitt: Louisville’s defense has been almost as bad at home as another team that wears red and white and recruited Quentin Castille in the off-season. However, as bad as they’ve been, there’s no way in hell we’re betting on a team coached by Steve Pederson’s #2 choice. Just think how appropriately ugly and foretelling that 7-6 slopfest in Lincoln was in 2005.
ASU (-3) over Cal: ASU has less experience in big games this year than Dr. D has in the condom aisle at the 7-Eleven in Bloomington. However, unlike a Bill Callahan coached team, Dennis Erickson knows how to get his players up for a big game and make adjustments at the half. Seriously, Callahan, if you are reading this, you the worst halftime coach in the history of college football (not a typo). You’ve outscored conference opponents in the 3rd quarter all of 3 times in your career. Fucking pathetic. Conversely, ASU is outscoring opponents 89-17 in the 3rd quarter this year. Take a lesson Cosgrove. It’s called making a god damned adjustment. ASU will turn a close game into a big-time win in front a sold-out crowd at Sun Devil Stadium.
OREGON STATE (-13)over Stanford: Oregon State is one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-10. If not for terrible QB play in the 2nd half, they could be on a 4-game winning streak. They have the #23 ranked defense in the NCAA and are giving up the fewest yards per rush in college football at just 1.8. Stanford won on the road in Tucson last week, but are in for a blowout loss in Corvallis this week facing an Oregon State squad that is off a bye, cutting down on mistakes, and playing lights out defense.