Archive for the ‘Timmy Rose’ Category

Take the Double Extra Points

October 25, 2007

Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Season: 44-40-1 ATS (52%)

“I’ve done an excellent job in every area.” Bill Callahan and Sammy Vegas, Oct. 23, commenting on their performances this season so far.

Alright, at least I’m not going to lie. I sucked last week. And while my right hand man Timmy Rose was in Europe wasting his days away in brothels and bubbles, I had to go solo which went up in flames faster than, well you know.

We usually don’t pick up strangers who give up on us after a few bad weeks, but I’m going to go with my instincts on this one. Saddle up partner!!!

SAMMY VEGAS

KANSAS STATE (-24.5) over Baylor: The fightin’ Bears have lost their last 5 Big 12 away games by 55-19. Last week at OSU, K State had over 500 yards of offense, blew a 4th quarter 14 pt lead, and lost on a last second field goal. Baylor brings in a pathetic spread offense that has to match up against the #8 pass D in the country. Besides, Coach Ron Prince needs to start eating up these cupcakes just for the weigh in against Mangino’s Jayhawks.

AUBURN (-17.5) over Mississippi: Ole Miss remains the only winless team in the SEC and was destroyed last week by an Arkansas team that Auburn held to 67 yards rushing (yeah, the same team with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones). As DXP reader Andrew has posted here, maybe Tommy Tuberville wouldn’t be such a bad candidate. After all he both praised and criticized his team after they beat Florida on the road, destroyed Arkansas on the road, and then lost on a questionable last second 25 yard ‘Hail Mary’ that cost them at LSU. With similar or maybe more talent imagine Nebraska’s results in those games? Imagine Bill Callahan’s comments. There would have a lot of ****-sucking amongst the coaching staff on that plane ride home.

TEXAS (-21) over Nebraska: I’ll give you one comparison. Iowa State outgained Nebraska by 46 yards in Lincoln and Texas outgained ISU by 286 in Ames. Texas’ players are physically healthy and Nebraska’s players are mentally unhealthy. Nebraska is 0-7 ATS the last 7 and is giving up 496 yards/game. One of the absurd comments to come out of Billy C.’s mouth at the press conference, when asked why RBs Marcus Mendoza and Cody Glenn didn’t play (as he said they would), ‘we’re just in a rhythm with those other players right now.’ Rhythm? Huh?

MISSOURI (-28) over Iowa State: Okay, I was wrong. Missouri is for real. Iowa State has the #106 rated pass defense in the country and has lost their Big 12 games by an average of 27 a game. If you are smart, expect a let down by both teams as ISU hung tough with Oklahoma and Missouri destroyed the potent T. Tech Raiders. However, ISU will be playing youth, as recommended by Dr. D at IU, as Coach Chizek starts to look ahead.

Weekly I Shouldn’t Be Looking This Game Up Pick

Troy (-4) over ARKANSAS STATE: Arkansas State was destroyed last week by MTSU, 7-24 at home, and out-gained by 246 yards. Troy worked out in this great spot last week as they destroyed N. Texas by 38, out-gained them by 300 yards, had 7 TO’s against them (yeah 7), and oh yeah, are on a 10-2 ATS streak. I got more, but this girl to my left just invited me over for picking Troy two weeks in a row. Sorry, gotta go.

TIMMY ROSE

WASHINGTON (-3.5) over Arizona: Speaking of coaches about to get fired, let’s look at a game in Seattle where both head coaches will be more pre-occupied with updating their resumes than calling plays. While Washington has lost 5 straight, they’ve played much tougher competition than Arizona and have Stanford on deck. The Wildcat spread offense has struggled on the road this year, averaging just 16 points per game.

EAST CAROLINA (-14) over UAB: UAB returned just 8 starters back this year and have been taking a pounding on both sides of the ball. This is a team with 20 fewer scholarship players than almost every other program and they have just 1 victory over I-A competition. This is a revenge game and Homecoming for East Carolina and they find themselves tied atop of the C-USA East standings with Southern Miss. UAB will be calling A Rose for tips on cougar hunting by the half.

LOUISVILLE (-11) over Pitt: Louisville’s defense has been almost as bad at home as another team that wears red and white and recruited Quentin Castille in the off-season. However, as bad as they’ve been, there’s no way in hell we’re betting on a team coached by Steve Pederson’s #2 choice. Just think how appropriately ugly and foretelling that 7-6 slopfest in Lincoln was in 2005.

ASU (-3) over Cal: ASU has less experience in big games this year than Dr. D has in the condom aisle at the 7-Eleven in Bloomington. However, unlike a Bill Callahan coached team, Dennis Erickson knows how to get his players up for a big game and make adjustments at the half. Seriously, Callahan, if you are reading this, you the worst halftime coach in the history of college football (not a typo). You’ve outscored conference opponents in the 3rd quarter all of 3 times in your career. Fucking pathetic. Conversely, ASU is outscoring opponents 89-17 in the 3rd quarter this year. Take a lesson Cosgrove. It’s called making a god damned adjustment. ASU will turn a close game into a big-time win in front a sold-out crowd at Sun Devil Stadium.

OREGON STATE (-13)over Stanford: Oregon State is one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-10. If not for terrible QB play in the 2nd half, they could be on a 4-game winning streak. They have the #23 ranked defense in the NCAA and are giving up the fewest yards per rush in college football at just 1.8. Stanford won on the road in Tucson last week, but are in for a blowout loss in Corvallis this week facing an Oregon State squad that is off a bye, cutting down on mistakes, and playing lights out defense.

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Take the Double Extra Points

October 11, 2007

Last Week: 5-5 (50%)
Season: 35-32-1 (52%)

If there is one wager that I can guarantee – DXP will have a 8-2 week and be back on track sooner than the Blackshirts hold a team to single digits. That much I can guarantee. Good thing is next week is here for us. Bad thing is next week is here for Nebraska. I figure it’s been awhile since we brought you Erin Andrews or Colleen Dominguez, which is why we need to cheer ourselves up with a picture of CBS’ own Jill Arrington. (That’s my ring on her finger so don’t get any ideas)


SAMMY VEGAS

OREGON (-18) over Washington St.: You gotta love revenge games (WSU over Oregon 34-23 last year) especially when you have Dennis Dixon at QB. Dixon has put up ridiculous numbers this year with 1238 passing yards (12 TDs) and 308 rushing yards (5 TDs) in only 5 games. This will be Oregon’s first time back since the last second loss to Cal and look for Donald ‘the Fighting’ Duck to kick Butch T. Cougar’s ass during warm-ups – just ask UH mascot Shasta.

TEXAS TECH (-9) over Texas A&M: In case you haven’t heard, Tech Freshman WR Michael Crabtree has 1,027 yards and 17 TDs this year while QB Graham Harrell has 2726 yards and 28 TD’s. Those aren’t even Playstation number, they’re higher. If you have your abacus out, Crabtree is projected to have over 2100 yards and 34 TDs and Harrell is projected to have 5450 yards and 56 TDs (thanks SMQ). That is way too much fire power for A&M whose only road game was a blowout loss at Miami. Mike Leach will take any chance he gets to run Texas and Texas A&M out of Lubbock.

KANSAS (-25) over Baylor: Much like our weekends with ladies the lately, this has let down written all over it. But if there is one thing Mangino is good at it is devouring cupcakes. While Baylor was getting pummeled by Colorado 40-9 early in the 3rd Q last week, KU was on their way to 5-0. KU is top 20 in Off., Def. and Spec. Teams and Baylor is 91st or worse in those.


ARKANSAS (-3) over Auburn: Arkansas was snake bit early in the season by Alabama and Kentucky where they lost high scoring games. However, since then they have destroyed two cupcakes and had last week off. Auburn has a lot of momentum (and not much rest) coming off a big win over Vanderbilt and of course Florida – even with horrible QB Brandon Cox who has 4 TDs and 7 INTs. However, this is an SEC home night game, these are the two best running backs in the country in Darren McFadden and Felix Jones for Arkansas, and this is a must win.

SOUTH CAROLINA (-7) OVER NORTH CAROLINA: Interesting stat here, these coaches have met 1 time in college and 1 time in the NFL with Butch have won both over the ‘Ole Ball Coach.’ USC is ranked #7 after their big win over then #8 Kentucky, but don’t think UNC doesn’t have upset on their mind. They are off a huge win over Miami where their 20 something true freshman are obviously getting much better. However, Spurrier has been great off bye weeks and he knows how big this game is for recruiting purposes so look for his veteran team to be at least a touchdown better over the young NC team.

ARKANSAS STATE (-9) over UL Lafayette: I would have to be a total loser to look up stats for a game like this. Anyways, Arkansas State has played well in two losses at Texas and at Tennessee. They are actually 1 of 2 teams in the conference to have more yards than their opponents and they boast the toughest schedule. Arkansas State has a decent enough running attack (#37) to take on the 117th best rush defense from ULL.

TIMMY ROSE

USC (-21) over Arizona: I would not want to be Mike Stoops on Saturday. He gets to go to the Coliseum to face a USC squad that will be looking to put a beat down on whoever is on the field. Arizona’s new Mike Leach offense is averaging over 300 yards per game passing and just 86 yards per game rushing, which is good for 9th worst in the NCAA. Expect USC to bring plenty of pressure and force QB Tuitama into bad decisions. He threw 3 INTs in the blowout loss to Oregon State last week and this one will get out of hand early.

MIAMI (-2.5) over Georgia Tech: Miami has not been Miami the last 2 weeks, beating Duke by 10 and losing badly at North Carolina. Expect HC Shannon to regroup on defense as they gave up almost 200 yards rushing last week. Georgia Tech has no passing game and Miami’s speed will be too much.

Louisville (+11) over CINCY: We bet against Cincy last week and are trying harder than Arthur Blank to recover our losses. They face a more potent passing attack this week as well as a rare defense that’s giving up more yards per game than the vaunted Blackshirts. Louisville gets some line value this week based on last week’s results and we think Louisville keeps it closer than Sammy’s mob ties in Vegas think.

BYU (-11) over UNLV: This pick is simple. Only A. Rose has gotten on Cougars more often than I have at the books this year and it’s been a very profitable strategy. BYU is off of an impressive win at New Mexico two weeks ago and gets 2 weeks to prep for the Runnin’ Rebs. Meanwhile, UNLV goes from getting beat up by the option at Air Force last week to facing one of the best air attacks in the country this week. Take A. Rose’s advice on Cougars: Lock ‘em up early as spreads are likely to get wider as they day goes on.

IOWA (+4) over Illinois: Iowa looked terrible last week against Penn State on the road and will look to get a much-needed victory at home against an Illinois defense that gave up over 500 yards last week to Wisconsin. The home team has covered 5 in a row in this series and Illinois is a road favorite less often than Dr. D is favored to get a return phone call from a sophomore lighter than 130 lbs.

Take the Double Extra Points #6

October 4, 2007

Last Week: 4-5-1 (44%) OUCH!
Season: 30-27-1 (53%) DAMN!

The trend continued again. The girls have officially stopped showing up. The post-game party doesn’t even have a guest list. Reality of the situation is we suck right now and we have to put up with partying by ourselves until the situation rectifies itself. Until then, it’s lonely us, poor lonely us.


SAMMY VEGAS

Georgia (+2) over TENNESSEE: The grace period for winning a national championship is running out for Coach Fullmer in Tennessee. The Vols are off to a 2-2 start with losses at Florida and Cal with neither being close. Georgia’s only loss this year is at home to South Carolina. Tennessee has a top 20 D and Georgia has a top 20 offense, and I usually don’t pick against Tennessee at home but I’m gonna go with my instincts on this one, saddle up partner.

TEXAS TECH (-24) over Iowa State: “It was pitiful, it was pitiful. It was flat-out pitiful. We’re some vaunted offense so we’re going to sit here with our arms folded. Oh well, we’ll have three lackadaisical plays and then we’ll punt and we’ll make it the defense’s problem.” –Mike Leach after Tech’s 45-41 loss to Oklahoma State. QB Grant Harrell has 24 touchdowns this year and 72% completion. Iowa State couldn’t be in a worse spot here as apparently coaches get on their players and get results.

Colorado (-8.5) over BAYLOR: I am starting to scare myself by talking about Dan Hawkins so much this week. Baylor has beaten Colorado the last two times they have played, and last week Baylor put up 2 first downs and had 68 total yards – the WHOLE game! Colorado has played Arizona State, Florida State, and Oklahoma – and they have actually have outgained these likes by an average of 89 yards/game. Oh and their defense is #5 in the country. Be very afraid Big 12 north.

INDIANA (-13) over Minnesota: Minnesota is bad. They have the worst pass defense in the country and have only 3 sacks – Indiana has a nation leading 27 sacks. Minnesota’s offense is dead last in TO’s with -18 while Indiana is 5th with +15. Last year, Minnesota ran the score up on Indiana 63-26 in the Dome so revenge is fresh. If that doesn’t convince you, I had IU professor Dr. D, the math Wunderkind, run these numbers and he was able to give me the phone numbers of all the Kappa pledge’s this semester. Numbers don’t lie.

PENN STATE (-9.5) over Iowa: Can you imagine paying a coach 2.7 million dollars in Kirk Ferentz to have him lose in his 9th year at Iowa to Indiana at home 20-38? (Callahan?) Iowa is almost last in every offensive category in the Big Ten and has given up 15 sacks this year. Penn State is off a loss at Illinois where they had almost a 100 more yards of offense than the Illini. I’m weary, but Iowa is awful.

TIMMY ROSE

SOUTH CAROLINA (-3.5) over Kentucky: Here is a Thursday pick for you loyal DXP readers to get your accounts started in the plus column before a huge weekend of college football. South Carolina is giving up just 15 points per game (12th in NCAA) and have already faced Georgia and LSU, while Kentucky is giving up almost 400 yards per game to the likes of Florida Atlantic and Kent State. Surprisingly, each of these rush defenses rank near the bottom of the country in rushing yards allowed at over 200 per game. We’ll go with the team that’s faced far superior defenses and the Ole’ Ball Coach that’s never lost to Kentucky. Did we mention that South Carolina has just slightly hotter girls than Kentucky?

TEXAS A&M (-6) over Oklahoma St: Oklahoma State’s passing D (3rd worst in NCAA) has more holes in it than Mike Vick’s brain. They will get tested in College Station as QB McGee threw 28 times last week for 200 yards. Texas A&M tops the Big XII South and will stay there for another week as they beat up on the most disappointing road team in the NCAA.

LOUISVILLE (-15) over Utah: Much like Oklahoma State, Utah has been of the most inconsistent teams in the country. After blowing out UCLA, they literally laid an egg at UNLV, losing 27-0. Their road game is worst than Dr. D’s bar game and Louisville looks to be recovered from back-to-back losses earlier in the year. Expect Louisville to run it up as they get national exposure on ESPN Friday night.

RUTGERS (-3.5) over Cincy: We think Cincy is more over-rated than a sober Saturday and a team that will be exposed against a Rutgers team that was beaten up by Maryland last week for over 450 yards and 34 points. Practice won’t be fun in Piscataway this week, but the Scarlet Knights should have no trouble getting fired up to face the team that ruined their Cinderella season just a year ago.

KANSAS STATE (-3) over Kansas: Kansas is in the top 10 in almost every single offensive and defensive statistical category and if you can guess the college town of more than one of their opponents, then next week’s picks are free. And if you’re counting, they played Toledo. Kansas State’s defense and special teams is among the best in the nation and this Coach Prince gets his fifth straight cover as a home favorite.

Take the Double Extra Points #5

September 27, 2007

Last Week: 5-6 (45%)
Season: 25-21 (54%)


Of the 6 losses last week, we lost 3 games by less than 3 points and 1 game in OT (Ala-Georgia). However, we are confident in a big rebound and even though our usual smoking hot ladies didn’t show up at our post-game party, we managed with some scraps courtesy of Dr. D’s class orientation party. Bottom line, the show goes on even if it isn’t smoking hot ladies but rather a young lady that required the offensive line to hold her up.

SAMMY VEGAS

TEXAS (-14.5) over Kansas State: In case you forgot, last year Texas was overly-embarrassed at K. State and cost themselves any chance for a Big 12 or National Championship after Colt McCoy got hurt. Texas was up 41-0 last week on Rice in the second quarter and is starting to look stronger and stronger. KSU QB Josh Freeman just texted me and said that he is planning on not showing up for the game because he is fat and has 2 TDs and 4 INTs this year.

NEBRASKA (-21) over Iowa State: In an ‘ideal’ situation, we would be overlooking this game as Missouri is on deck. However, this is not an ‘ideal’ situation – but in case you didn’t know, I can look into the future and this vision came to me from the upcoming Sunday Bill Callahan Show with Jim Rose. Here is what will be said:

‘No Question Jim. These young men gave a tremendous effort Saturday and I can’t say enough about their preparation and hard work this week. It was just another outstanding performance from our Offense and I was proud of the way Coz rallied the defense and showed their toughness. We don’t take what defenses give us, we take what we want.’ -Bill Callahan Iowa State post-game interview with Jim Rose this upcoming Sunday

Hawaii (-25) over IDAHO: Hawaii has beaten Idaho (1-3) by an average of 48-10 the last 3 years and Heisman candidate QB Colt Brennan is averaging 421 ypg (77% completion) with 12 TDs and 1 INT this year. Idaho’s secondary gives up a 66 completion %. You don’t even need an elementary math IQ to figure this out.

TULSA (-20.5) over UAB: UAB is off a bigger slump-buster win than anybody who has ever visited Club Patrick’s in Lincoln after beating a 1AA opponent with 5 field goals to break an 8 game losing streak. Tulsa is averaging 508 yards/game this year and runs a no-huddle offense that hung tough with Oklahoma until the 4th quarter last week. This will be ugly.

Ohio State (-23) over MINNESOTA: Ohio State won their 22nd straight regular season game last week against Northwestern where they were so dominant that NW didn’t cross the 50 until almost the 4th quarter. New QB Boeckman leads the Big 10 at QB, ‘Beanie’ Wells is avg 6 yards/carry, and their top WR Robiskie has 5 TDs and averages over 21 yards/reception – oh and their Defense is #3 in college football. Minnesota is 1-3 and has the worst pass D in the country.

VA. TECH (-18) over N. Carolina: UNC has lost 18 straight games away from the state of N. Carolina and is coming off a blowout loss at S. Florida where their offense put up an impressive 164 yards. UNC Fr. QB threw 4 INTs and was sacked 4 times in that loss. V. Tech has been less than impressive this year and actually was out first-downed by William & Mary last week in a 44-3 win. At home, the Hokie defense (#11 in the country) and special teams should cover this one up much better than Michael Vick’s advisors.

TIMMY ROSE

NAVY (-2.5) over Air Force: I got lit up like a Mike Vick bong taking Navy to cover against Duke last week. Navy’s defense is the key to this game as they are giving up almost 300 yards per game through the air, which ranks near the bottom of the NCAA, but just 150 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile Air Force averages just 130 yards per game passing and both teams clearly prefer the run. This game looks a lot like last week with a weak passing team unable to capitalize on the opposing defense’s weakness. Navy will literally run away with this one.

TEXAS A&M (-16.5) over Baylor: Baylor is giving up just over 3 yards per rush and 115 yards per game, but face a huge step up in talent and competition this week facing an angry Texas A&M squad whose backup QB cost us an UNDER victory with 5 seconds left in the game last week against Miami. I’m not even sure we should count that as a loss. I mean, this isn’t the NFL, we should be having more fun predicting games and I’m just not having that much fun right now . . . sorry about that DXP readers, Cory McKeon was typing that last sentence while I was taking a leak. Where was I? Ah yes, Texas A&M taking out its frustrations on a Baylor squad that’s faced Texas St and Buffalo the past two weeks. A&M may cover by the end of the first quarter.

Kent (-1) over OHIO: Somehow Ohio is averaging 27 points per game on just 313 yards per game (98th in NCAA). They’ve done it with smoke, mirrors, and interlock systems on all team buses. This is a team that got 7 turnovers a week ago and failed to win. Meanwhile, Kent blew a 10 point lead at Akron last week while giving up the ball 4 times. I’m taking the more talented team in this game and if Kent doesn’t get at least 150 more yards of total offense, I won’t pick another game the rest of the year.

Temple (+6) over ARMY: You know you’ve hit rock-bottom when you lay down hard-earned cash on Temple. This team hasn’t won on the road since Dr. D started sneaking into sorority houses on the Indiana campus (2003 if you’re counting). However, this week they catch a very winnable road contest taking on an Army squad that averages 60 yards per game rushing, 258 yards of total offense, and a measly 13.75 points per game (116th in NCAA). Temple isn’t much better, but we’ll take the more experience squad in this one.

Sammy Vegas and Timmy Rose: Take the Double Extra Points #3

September 13, 2007

Last Week: 6-4 (60%)
Season: 14-9 (64%)

We are off to a pretty darn good start this year on DXP. So good in fact, we decided to have a low- key party last week to celebrate. These smokin’ hot ladies promised us even more next week if we stay above 60%.

SAMMY VEGAS

INDIANA (-13) over Akron: Akron was able to stay close to Ohio State last week thanks to 5 OSU TO’s and they managed to put up a whopping 69 total yards. Also this is Akron’s third straight away game with their conference opener on deck. Indiana is coming off a win over Western Michigan where they had over 440 yards of offense lead by 6’7 WR James Hardy who had 4 TD’s and 180 yards. Indiana expects to win games nowadays and they should be all over Akron like A. Rose on every unsuspecting 21 year old in the bar after 10 p.m. And yes, those are actual IU students to the left, and Dr. D is probably in jail as we speak.

NAVY (-7) over Ball State: Navy returns home after a tough loss last Friday night at Rutgers. They are averaging a great 5.7 ypc on the ground while Ball State gives up over 5.1 ypc on the ground (against lesser competition). I truly believe Navy coach Paul Johnson is one of the best coaches in college football and Navy showed it last year by coughing up over 1 million a year to keep him. He better win this one by 7.

LSU (-40) over Middle Tennessee State: There is no point in getting into stats here – LSU is good. The only problem here is obviously not their drubbing of Va. Tech (48-7) last week, but having South Carolina on deck. However, Freshmen LSU QB Ryan Perriloux should get a good chance here to mop up and build some confidence. This is just a sad case of having your 3rd and 4th stringers overmatch the starters on a much inferior team.

NORTHWESTERN (-16.5) over Duke: Northwestern’s bowl chances could ride on getting a victory here at home after a comeback win over Nevada last week. Duke is so bad that their QB averages 143 ypg with 2 TDs and 4 INTs, their rushing attack is getting 50 ypg, and the offense line has given up 9 sacks – and these are against UCONN and Virginia. Northwestern is in great shape here.

Louisville (-6.5) over KENTUCKY: The REDNECK bowl here should be high on hot girls but low on class. This was a tough one here, but I do think Louisville got a serious wakeup call last week on Thursday vs. MTSU. An interesting stat I found here regarding two of the best QBs in the country: Brohm from Louisville is 5-0 all time vs. Woodson from UK by a total score of 219-60. Louisville is 7-1 the last 8 here.

PENN STATE (-34) over Buffalo: I am simply picking Penn State in this one as we need to ride their early season dominance out as long as possible. Penn State is by far the best team in the Big 10 right now, but they do have Michigan on deck. Buffalo returns 18 starters and looked great last week as they blew up Temple – but offensively, they face a team that hasn’t given up an offensive TD this year against Notre Dame and FIU.

TIMMY ROSE

Houston (-14.5) over Tulane: The Cougars once again lead the nation in awesome nicknames and have had a week off to think about falling apart in Eugene two weeks ago. Houston piled up the offense against Oregon in Week 1 and look to have a balanced attack against a defense that gave up almost 34 points a game last year. The score was 45-7 in Houston last year and I don’t think this one will be much closer. Did I mention Tulane didn’t get a singe first down in the second half last week? Much like the second half at the bars for Sammy Vegas last Saturday night.

BYU (-6.5) over Tulsa: Had I known that BYU would rack up 435 yards of offense last week and hold UCLA to 236 yards, I would have called the 7 pt dog Cougs a bigger lock than Tom Cruise’s homosexuality. However, UCLA got a pick-six early in the game and then scored a garbage TD with a minute left to pull off the front-door cover. This is a vastly underrated BYU defense and there is great line value here as BYU is coming off a misleading loss and Tulsa off a misleading win in Week 1.

Virginia Tech (-20.5) over Ohio: The spread on this game would have been 28 before the start of the season. Ohio returns just 11 starters from last year’s MAC East Champion squad and lose their entire LB corp from last year, their strongest unit. Virginia Tech will look to rebound from their worst loss in 25 years and I call for Coach Beamer to leave the starters in well into the 2nd half as he starts a freshman QB for the first time. Ohio gave up over 500 yards of offense last week in a game that saw them down 10 points at half. There will be no 2nd half comeback this week and Ohio’s point total is likely to be lower than Frank Solich’s BAC.

Florida State (-4) over Colorado: I bet against shitty QBs more often than Dr. D puts his cell phone number on a class syllabus. Cody Hawkins was so bad last week only Ivanka Trump could appreciate the brand of nepotism that is stinking up Boulder. Andy Reid is having better luck with his sons. This is another one of those games where the spread would have been double digits before the start of the season and FSU has yet to show the talent they have on offense. Last week, Colorado’s defense wore out faster than a Diddy single and I see no reason they will keep this one close down the stretch against a team with much greater talent.


Boston College (+7) over Georgia: There has been a lot of talk about how great Georgia Tech’s defense is with 8 starters back from a solid unit in 2006. Surprisingly, Boston College has allowed fewer points/game than G-Tech in each of the last 3 years and have 9 starters back from last year’s team that allowed just over 100 rushing yards per game. The Yellow Jackets have two talented RBs, but Matt Ryan does just enough on offense to keep this one close in very low scoring ACC game in Hotlanta.

Louisville-Kentucky OVER (77): This game is simple. Match up two of the best QBs and offenses in the country against two of the worst scoring defenses in the country. There will be very few FGs in this match-up and the OVER could hit by half. Brohm is now a front-runner for the Heisman and you can bet Steve Kragthorpe will do everything he can to get him the award.

Take the Double Extra Points – Week 2

September 6, 2007

“The Smarter You Play the Luckier You’ll Be”

Last Week: 8-5 ATS (62.5%)

I hope all of you out there put trust in us last weekend. We did have some losses, but we did end up with a record that professional gambling services would be lucky to brag about. Take notes this week because we will get it done again.

SAMMY VEGAS

Nebraska (-8) over WAKE FOREST: WFU QB Riley Skinner is out after suffering a shoulder separation last week at Boston College. Nebraska last week had a whopping 413 yards rushing the football – most since 2002. Expect Sam Keller to get things going in the air with the new addition of WR Maurice Purify as NU needs to gain confidence in their passing game heading into USC. Two years ago, Nebraska won this contest in Lincoln 31-3.

PENN STATE (-17) over Notre Dame: True Freshman QB Jimmy Clausen will start for the Irish as they go on the road after coming off a 33-3 home loss to G. Tech. Penn State hung an easy 59-0 win last week at home and had a huge offensive output from QB Anthony Morelli. This is the first time Notre Dame travels to Happy Valley since the early 1970s so expect the Nittany Lion fans to be ready to pounce on the lowly Irish.

Wisconsin (-25) over UNLV: The Badgers are off a 42-21 win over a very decent Washington State team last week. New Wisconsin QB Donovan threw for 284 yards and is now 3-0 as a starter and has 7 TD to only 1 INT. The Wisconsin Defense allowed just 135 yards from the 2nd Q on last weekend and going up against a true Freshman QB from UNLV, they should have a field day. The Baaaadgers roll here.

Oklahoma State (-24) over Florida Atlantic: Coming off a disappointing loss at Georgia, the Cowboys will want to flex their muscle against an FAU team who is fresh off a home win. Captain Kangaroo (thanks Timmy Rose), FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger, has lost his last 7 non-conference road games by over 39 points a game. Trust me, Florida Atlantic will lay down and prepare for the next game at home against Minnesota.

SMU (-17) over North Texas: North Texas has mimicked Texas Techs’ offense this year so SMU is not behind this week ( even though Tech beat SMU by a billion on Monday). However, SMU is talented and they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 home games. The Mustangs will show off their talent and prove to their fans that they will eventually be able to out-recruit North Texas.

TIMMY ROSE

Kansas State (-17) over San Jose St – After watching the Spartans muster 5 first downs and 115 yards of offense against an Arizona State defense that was without 2 DL starters and using a converted TE as a DE, I would have to be more depressed than Owen Wilson to not throw down big against San Jose State on Saturday. The Wildcat rushing attack was non-existent against a very good Auburn defense last week, but will find things much easier this week against a horrendous front seven. This will be a rare opportunity for HC Price to pour it on and I think he’ll do just that in building confidence in an offense that returns 8 starters and has dangerous speed.

Baylor (-6) over Rice – As Lloyd Carr was updating his resume in Ann Arbor after last week’s complete meltdown against Appalachian State, another bowl team from 2006 was getting its ass kicked at home against a I-AA team. Not many people saw Rice lose to Nicholls State at home, but it was equally embarrassing. In fact, if you’re one of the 22 Rice alums who cares about football, you may want to thank HC Carr’s underachievers for providing air cover. Rice has a new HC and this will be his first game against a I-A team. Rice was one of the luckiest teams in the country last year with a +8 TO ratio and 4 wins in their last 5 by 6 points or less. Baylor was much better than last week’s 27-0 loss at TCU might suggest as the Bears outgained the Horned Frogs in the first half but were doomed by 3 INTs and 2 missed FGs. This is the closest thing to free money that you’ll find this week as Baylor should have a 3 TD lead by half.

Washington (+3) over Boise State –The WAC is even more over-rated than ‘Medellin’ turned out to be at Cannes last Sunday (how about the girls on Yair’s boat though?) and there is no way Boise should be favored over a very improved Washington team that completely dismantled Syracuse last week. Boise replaces 4 starters in their front seven defense that gave up just 17 points and under 300 yards per game in 2006. Washington has huge size and talent edges against the Bronco defense should be able to produce a balanced attack under new QB Locker and RB Rankin. The Huskies know this is one of the few winnable games in the next month (Ohio State, at UCLA, USC on deck) and will be primed to start out the season 2-0. Look for a close game that Washington pulls out in the 4th quarter.

Texas (-10) over TCU – Speaking of over-rated, let’s move on to the sexy pick to crash the BCS party in 2007. TCU has an excellent defense that returns 9 starters from a 2006 squad which gave up just 12 points per game, 61 yards rushing, and has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 20 games. Unfortunately, TCU has an offense that could not score more than 17 points against above average defenses last year in Texas Tech, Baylor, Utah, and BYU. Texas is a huge step up in talent for the Horned Frogs and the Longhorns will itching harder than Sammy Vegas on a Sunday morning to prove any doubters wrong after last week’s close call. Texas will cover by half and TCU won’t score more than a FG in the 3rd and 4th quarters combined.

Memphis (-4) over Arkansas State – Two words: Line value. Last week, Memphis pulled off a backdoor cover that reminded me of our Wunderkind working the bar at the Manhole in Chicago. The Tigers had a 467-275 total yardage edge against Mississippi, yet was somehow losing 20-0 at the half. As a 2.5 point dog the Tigers scored with 7 seconds left to make the score 23-21. On cue, they missed the 2-point conversion and produced another winner for Sammy Vegas and myself. This is the second revenge game in a row for Memphis as they lost 26-23 to Ark State in 2006 on a hail mary on the game’s final play. Meanwhile, Ark State opened a lot of eyes by outgaining Texas in a game that had most of the crowd in Austin searching for Lloyd Carr on sideline. This is a big let down situation for the Indians while Memphis has a I-AA team on deck and will be focused to amend last year’s fluke loss.


Michigan (-8.5) over Oregon – The pressure to win in Ann Arbor to win on Saturday will be immeasurable as an 0-2 start could cost Lloyd Carr his job. After watching the speed of Appalachian St QB Armanti Edwards and WR Dexter Jackson on FSN last night, Michigan’s rebuilt defense might actually catch a break by getting Dennis Dixon and the Oregon WRs this week. It won’t come down to Michigan’s defense though as the Wolverine ground game should control an Oregon front seven that looked terrible last week against Houston, surrendering a 200-yard rusher, over 300 yards rushing, and over 550 total yards. The Ducks fade down the stretch in this one and lose by two TDs in a must-win game in the Big House.

Sammy Vegas and Timmy Rose: Take the Double Extra Points

August 30, 2007

“The smarter you play, the luckier you’ll be”

Super Duper Gang!!! We’re Back!!!


We are super duper happy to be back again this year on DXP to try again to take down Vegas. For all of the new followers here, what we do is research the hell out of college football lines and then feed you our expert picks with plenty of stats and numbers to satisfy all gambling aficionados. Oh, and occasionally, we might throw a picture of some smokin’ hot ladies up here and there. And it’s all FREE!!!

Before we get started here, I wanted to remind you all about the DXP pick ‘em contest. Oh, and by the way, we have great prizes for the top 5 – which includes gift certificates and this great bobble head doll of the greatest mascot on earth.


Click here to join. If that link fails, simply Go to ESPN.com and click on Fantasy at the top. Then select College Pick’em. You’ll then be asked to either create an account or logon to your existing ESPN Fantasy account. Once you’ve done that you’ll want to join our group which is Double Extra Point and the password is Huskers.

Now, I’m no mathematical Wunderkind like Dr. D, but I think going 19-10 to end the year means loyal DXP readers like you can pay up those bar bills by strictly adhering to the free advice that comes from future gambling legends Sammy Vegas and Timmy Rose.

SAMMY VEGAS

PENN STATE (-38) over Florida International: FIU was 0 for 12 last year. This year they have the luxury of breaking in a new QB (and head coach) in front of 105,000 people in Happy Valley to start the season. Penn State is on everyone’s radar to compete for the Big 10 championship, and QB Anthony Morelli will have his breakout year that Nittany Lion fans have been waiting for. Penn State will boast one of the nation’s top defenses this year with former top recruit CB Justin King. Look for Penn State to roll harder than Dr. D in the streets of Manhattan.

KANSAS (-7.7) over Central Michigan: Coach “ManGyro” leads a Jayhawk team that might surprise some Big 12 foes this year with a stout defense lead by CB Aqib Talib (Playboy All-American). Do you know that only ONE rusher has put up over 100 yards in the last two years against them? The CMU Chippewas have mustered up 2 wins in their last 22 non-conference road games. Mangino is 12-5 ATS at home with SE Louisiana lingering on deck and he should be able to eat his way through a porous CMU defense.

NEBRASKA (-21) over Nevada: Since Callahan laid an egg against S. Miss at home several years ago, the Huskers have won all 6 non-conference home games by an average of almost 32 points per game. Last year, Nevada lost to a Sam Keller-less Arizona State team 52-21. Well, this year Keller gets his shot. I think that between the Blackshirts and our tailgating Blackouts, we should have no trouble containing Nevada’s first year starting quarterback.

Florida State (-3) over CLEMSON: Believe it or not, this is the already the 9th Bowden Bowl. Wow. Another Wow is that Tommy has beaten Bobby 3 of the last 4 years. While Clemson only returns 12 starters and will start a perennial back-up at QB, FSU brings almost everybody back including QB Drew Weatherford, RB Antone Smith, and WR Greg Carr. FSU beat UCLA 44-27 in a bowl to cap a great finish while Clemson lost their last 4 of 5 and gave up over 22 pts/per game. Probably this biggest factor here is going to be FSU new offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, who Bowden hired from LSU.

TEXAS (-39) over Arkansas State: Two great statistics here: Texas has won their first game the last 7 years by an avg. of 52-5 and Arkansas State has lost 16 away road games by an avg. of 42-13. Texas lost absolutely no one and will have a healthy Colt McCoy who had them, as a freshman, in the BCS championship hunt until his neck injury against Kansas State. Expect big plays from RB Jamaal Charles and their WRs who put up big numbers last year as the Longhorns put this away by halftime.

MICHIGAN STATE (-21) over UAB: UAB returns a whopping 8 starters and replaces their entire coaching staff. MSU has avg. 44 points per game the last 2 years in their non-conference games. UAB defense ranks #115 in most experts’ minds and that is not good. MSU QB Brandon Hoyer had his first career start the last game of the year last at Penn State and had 61, yeah 61, pass attempts. Only T. Rose averages more attempts on a Saturday – however, that is at the Arizona State student union.

TIMMY ROSE


ARIZONA STATE (-15) over San Jose St – This game will mark the beginning of the Dennis Erickson era in Tempe and has the unusual distinction of being a revenge game for the coach as he lost his final game with Idaho to Coach Tomey and the Spartans last November. Coach Erickson knows this opponent well and he will not overlook a team that returns 15 starters from last year’s New Mexico Bowl winning squad. The Sun Devils have the size advantage on both lines and will be determined to get RB Ryan Torrain going early. That will open things up for QB Rudy Carpenter and a talented group of WRs. It will get ugly in the desert as Coach Erickson rolls to his first win with ASU. While I’ll be in the 19th row on the 50-yard line at Sun Devil Stadium for this one, I will be lucky to catch more than five actual plays of the game as the scantily clad student section will be to my immediate left. I’ll take pictures for the loyal DXP readers.

USC (-46) over Idaho – Let’s stay in the Pac-10 and make this one short and sweet. New coach, freshman QB, new WRs, TE, LG, and LT vs one of the best defenses in the past 10 years with potentially 8, yes 8, future first and second round draft picks. I would take USC’s defense to outscore Idaho by at least 14. The Vandals will be lucky to score once and USC’s third-stringers are better than any team in WAC.

AUBURN(-13 ½) over Kansas State – This is the first time in 6 years that K-State has had the balls to travel to a BCS school for a non-conference game. Tell Coach Prince that this might be a step up from Marshall and Illinois State (who KSU rolled by 1 point in last year’s opener). This will be the toughest environment that QB Freeman has had to play in and not even an above average defense will be able to save the Mildcats from making this a close game. If you want to double up on this game, take the UNDER (46) and give Sammy Vegas 20% of the winnings.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-2 ½ ) over Middle Tennessee State – Following Sun Belt Conference football action is what truly separates the men from the boys in the gambling world. For those of you who’ve even heard of these two schools, you will remember that MTSU beat FAU last year with the help of defensive and special teams TDs. FAU has 18 starters back and will be one of the most improved teams in the league. They also have Captain Kangaroo as their coach, which makes this pick tough even though it’s been over 23 years since I cried after the ’84 Orange Bowl.

OREGON (-15) over Houston – Like Jeffie Husker, I call for Oregon to be the most underrated team in the Pac-10. Even though the Ducks finished 2007 with 4 straight losses, they have 7 starters back on both offense and defense. QBs Dixon and Leaf and RBs Stewart and Johnson return to form a good nucleus on offense and their defense sets up perfectly (Top 20 pass D each of last 4 years) for the visiting Cougars. Even though I’m partial to the Houston mascot, I think Oregon wins convincingly and will be the sleeper in a deep Pac-10.

STANFORD (+17) over UCLA – Yes, they have a new coach and yes, they are hands down the least talented team in the Pac-10. However, I read a stat 4 years ago in Phil Steele’s College Football Preview that has stuck with me like the “I thought the Rocky Mountains would be a little rockier than this” quote from Dumb and Dumber. Always play on a home dog in a season opener if they have more than 16 starters returning in a revenge game. Evidently this formula generates winners more than 70% of the time. And seriously, how can you not go with advice given by the prognosticating legend Phil Steele?